Cuba Faces Uncertain Future as Venezuela's Maduro Era Ends

Cuba confronts its most precarious position in decades following the US military operation that removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power, threatening to cut off the island's crucial oil lifeline amid its worst economic crisis since the Cold War.

The removal of Maduro—Venezuela's leader since 2013 and Cuba's closest ally—has left the communist-run Caribbean nation isolated and vulnerable. With 32 Cuban nationals killed during the operation, including members of Maduro's security detail, the depth of Cuba's involvement in Venezuelan governance has been dramatically exposed.

The relationship between Cuba and Venezuela dates back to 1999, when a young presidential candidate named Hugo Chávez met Fidel Castro, the aging leader of the Cuban Revolution, on the tarmac at Havana airport.

For years, their alliance deepened into a mutually beneficial arrangement. Venezuelan crude oil flowed to the communist island in exchange for Cuban doctors and medical personnel traveling to Venezuela. This partnership became the cornerstone of both nations' foreign policy.

After both leaders died, Maduro—who was trained and instructed in Cuba—became Chávez's handpicked successor. His selection was partly because he was acceptable to the Castro brothers, representing continuity for both the Cuban and Venezuelan revolutions.

The US military operation revealed what many had long suspected: Maduro's security detail was almost entirely composed of Cuban bodyguards. Cuban nationals also occupy numerous positions throughout Venezuela's intelligence services and military.

Cuba had consistently denied having active soldiers or security agents inside Venezuela. However, freed political prisoners have frequently claimed they were interrogated by men with Cuban accents while in custody.

Despite endless public declarations of solidarity between the two nations, the Cuban influence behind the scenes of the Venezuelan state is believed to have created tensions. Some Venezuelan ministers aligned with Havana clash with those who feel the relationship established by Chávez and Castro has become fundamentally unbalanced, with Venezuela receiving little in return for its oil.

Venezuela is believed to send approximately 35,000 barrels of oil per day to Cuba. None of the island's other main energy partners—Russia and Mexico—come close to providing this volume.

The Trump administration's strategy of confiscating sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers has already begun worsening Cuba's fuel and electricity crisis. Without Maduro at Venezuela's helm, this situation has the potential to become acute very quickly.

The possibility that Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela's new acting president, could halt oil shipments to Cuba fills Cubans with dread, especially if she seeks to placate the Trump administration following the raid against her predecessor.

Cuba was already experiencing its worst economic crisis since the Cold War before Maduro's removal. The island has endured rolling blackouts from end to end for months.

The impact on ordinary Cubans has been severe: weeks without reliable electricity, food rotting in refrigerators, fans and air-conditioning not functioning, mosquitoes swarming in the heat, and uncollected rubbish festering in the streets.

Cuba has experienced a widespread outbreak of mosquito-borne diseases in recent weeks, with massive numbers affected by dengue fever and chikungunya. The country's healthcare system—once considered the jewel of the revolution—has struggled to cope.

The Cuban government has robustly denounced the US operation as illegal and declared two days of national mourning for the 32 Cuban nationals killed in the military raid.

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel addressed a rally in Havana condemning Washington's actions. He honored the deceased as "brave Cuban combatants" who died "taking on the terrorists in imperial uniforms."

President Trump responded bluntly aboard Air Force One: "Cuba is ready to fall."

President Trump insists Washington is now calling the shots in Venezuela. While these comments were somewhat walked back by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, there is no doubt the Trump administration expects total compliance from Rodríguez as acting president.

Trump has threatened further, potentially worse consequences if Rodríguez "doesn't behave," as he phrased it.

Trump has dubbed the new circumstances in Latin America the "Donroe Doctrine", a reference to the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine—a colonialist foreign policy principle that warned European powers against interfering in the US sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere.

Rubio used the term "backyard" to describe Latin America while justifying actions against Venezuela on US Sunday talk shows, suggesting Washington has the unalienable right to determine what happens in the region.

Rubio—a Cuban American former Florida senator and son of Cuban exiles—plays a crucial role in what happens next for Cuba. The US economic embargo has been in place for more than six decades but failed to remove the Castro brothers or their political project from power.

Rubio reportedly would like nothing more than to be the person who brought an end to 60 years of communist rule in his parents' homeland. He views the strategy of removing Maduro and imposing conditions on a more compliant Rodríguez government as key to achieving that goal in Havana.

The US operation has shocked and angered Washington's critics, who characterize it as the worst form of US imperialism and interventionism seen in Latin America since the Cold War.

Critics argue that Maduro's removal amounts to kidnapping and that the case against him should be dismissed at his eventual trial in New York. Trump has warned he might carry out similar operations against other leaders, including Colombia's president if necessary.

For Ghana and other African nations, Cuba's predicament offers important lessons about dependency on single sources of external support and the vulnerability of small nations to great power politics.

Many African countries maintain relationships with both Western powers and alternative partners like China or Russia. Cuba's situation demonstrates the risks when one relationship becomes overwhelmingly dominant in a nation's economic survival.

The US military intervention in Venezuela also raises concerns about sovereignty and the limits of international intervention, issues particularly relevant to African nations that have historically experienced foreign interference in their domestic affairs.

Cuba has faced difficult periods before and remains defiant in the face of this latest US military intervention in the region. However, the current crisis may prove more challenging than past hardships.

The key question is whether Rodríguez will continue Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba or use them as leverage with the Trump administration. Her decision could determine whether Cuba's economic crisis becomes a full-scale humanitarian catastrophe.

For now, ordinary Cubans endure daily hardships while their government maintains its revolutionary rhetoric, uncertain whether the post-Maduro era will bring relief or further suffering.