Trump Projects US Oil Operations in Venezuela Could Resume Within 18 Months

President Donald Trump says American oil companies could be "up and running" in Venezuela within 18 months, following a controversial US military operation that removed President Nicolás Maduro from power.

Trump's ambitious timeline has drawn skepticism from energy analysts who previously told the BBC that restoring Venezuela's oil production could require tens of billions of dollars and potentially take a decade. The announcement signals the Trump administration's clear economic interests in the South American nation beyond stated humanitarian concerns.

Speaking to NBC News, Trump outlined an investment framework where "a tremendous amount of money will have to be spent, and the oil companies will spend it, and then they'll get reimbursed by us or through revenue."

The president speculated that oil production could potentially ramp up "in less time than that, but it'll be a lot of money," referring to his 18-month projection.

Representatives from major US petroleum companies were scheduled to meet with the Trump administration later this week, according to CBS News, the BBC's partner network.

Trump has been explicit about his objectives for expanding American petroleum operations in Venezuela, framing it as beneficial for US economic interests.

"Having a Venezuela that's an oil producer is good for the United States because it keeps the price of oil down," Trump stated.

The Trump administration views Venezuela's oil reserves as holding significant potential for American energy security. The country possesses an estimated 303 billion barrels—the world's largest proven reserve.

Energy analysts who previously spoke to the BBC expressed doubt that Trump's plans would significantly impact global oil supply or prices in the timeframe he suggests.

Experts indicated that petroleum companies would require assurance that a stable government is in place before making substantial investments. Even after committing capital, extraction projects would likely not deliver results for several years.

The challenges are substantial. Venezuela's oil production has been declining since the early 2000s, and increasing output would be expensive for US firms. Additionally, Venezuelan oil is heavy crude, which is more difficult and costly to refine than lighter varieties.

Currently, only one US firm—Chevron—maintains operations in Venezuela. When asked about Trump's plans, Chevron spokesman Bill Turenne offered a cautious response.

"We remain focused on the safety and well-being of our employees, as well as the integrity of our assets," Turenne said. "We continue to operate in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations."

ConocoPhillips, a major US oil company that no longer operates in Venezuela, stated through spokesman Dennis Nuss that it "is monitoring developments in Venezuela and their potential implications for global energy supply and stability."

"It would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments," Nuss added.

ExxonMobil did not immediately respond to requests for comment about potential operations in Venezuela.

While justifying Maduro's seizure of Caracas, Trump claimed that Venezuela "unilaterally seized and stole American oil."

Vice President JD Vance echoed these assertions on social media platform X, writing that "Venezuela expropriated American oil property and until recently used that stolen property to get rich and fund their narcoterrorist activities."

The actual history of US oil companies in Venezuela is more nuanced than these statements suggest.

American petroleum firms have a long history in Venezuela, extracting oil under license agreements for decades. However, Venezuela nationalized its oil industry in 1976, establishing state control over petroleum resources.

In 2007, President Hugo Chavez exerted additional state control over the remaining foreign-owned assets of US oil firms operating in the country. This move prompted legal challenges from affected companies.

In 2019, a World Bank tribunal ordered Venezuela to pay $8.7 billion to ConocoPhillips as compensation for the 2007 nationalization. Venezuela has not paid this sum, meaning at least one US oil company has outstanding compensation owed to it.

However, BBC Verify's Ben Chu noted that claiming Venezuela "stole" American oil is overly simplistic. Experts emphasized that the oil itself was never actually owned by anyone except Venezuela—what was seized were operational assets and contracts, not the petroleum reserves themselves.

For Ghana—itself an oil-producing nation—Venezuela's situation raises important questions about resource sovereignty, foreign investment, and international intervention in domestic affairs.

Ghana discovered commercial oil reserves in 2007 and began production in 2010. The country has navigated relationships with international oil companies while maintaining national control over its resources, a balance that Venezuela's experience shows can be contentious.

The Trump administration's explicit focus on accessing Venezuelan oil as justification for military intervention sets a concerning precedent for resource-rich developing nations. African countries with substantial oil, mineral, or natural gas reserves may view these developments as a warning about potential foreign intervention justified by economic interests.

Trump's Venezuela strategy reflects broader shifts in global energy politics. As countries transition away from fossil fuels, competition for remaining oil reserves intensifies among nations still dependent on petroleum.

Venezuela's heavy crude, while challenging to refine, becomes increasingly valuable as lighter crude sources diminish globally. This gives the country strategic importance beyond the sheer volume of its reserves.

The meeting between US petroleum company representatives and the Trump administration will likely provide clearer indications of corporate interest in Venezuelan operations.

However, significant questions remain unanswered: What government structure will provide the stability oil companies require? How will existing contracts and nationalizations be addressed? Who will bear the substantial upfront costs of infrastructure repair?

Energy analysts will watch closely to see whether Trump's optimistic 18-month timeline proves realistic or whether Venezuela's oil sector recovery follows the decade-long trajectory experts initially projected.

For now, the gap between political rhetoric and industry caution suggests that restoring Venezuelan oil production will prove more complex and time-consuming than the president's public statements indicate.