Oil at $105 Brent — The Hormuz Chokepoint Holds Despite the Ceasefire

Despite Trump's indefinite ceasefire extension, the mechanics of the energy crisis have not changed. The US naval blockade on Iranian ports remains fully in force. Iran continues its own Hormuz navigation restrictions. Brent crude surged 13.2% in a single week to $105 per barrel — territory not seen since the peak of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine supply shock. Every additional day the blockade holds compounds economic damage to oil-importing developing nations.

With 46 days until the World Cup and a freshly delivered fuel price relief package already under pressure, Ghana's National Petroleum Authority faces an impossible position. Any delay in building national fuel buffers risks a catastrophic pump price spike that unravels the government's entire macroeconomic recovery narrative — just as the IMF upgrade creates positive momentum.